Market
Prices return on March 25
136
days
THE MOVEMENT
Does following the movement work? What 2026 said
Where the consensus moved since the open, and whether that side ended up being right. The whole season.
-11.4points
In 2026, below what its price required
won
42.4%
needed
53.8%
99 consensus moves, from September 14 to the end of the season: the side the line moved toward came in 42.4% of the time, and its price required 53.8%. The rule needs 150 to give a verdict; it starts counting again on March 25.
THE SEASON
Did the price tell the truth?
984 games in 2026 with their closing price, from July 10 to September 27: how often the favorite won, against what its price gave it.
58.5%favorite won
The price said 57.5%: almost exact
won
58.5%
said
57.5%
Favorite at 50 to 55% · 402 games
won
52.7%
said
52.5%
Favorite at 55 to 60% · 295 games
won
59.0%
said
57.5%
Favorite at 60 to 65% · 187 games
won
62.0%
said
62.3%
Favorite at 65 to 70% · 71 games
won
67.6%
said
67.1%
Favorite above 70% · 29 games
won
89.7%
said
73.5%
Totals, at the most even line · 1002 games
over
50.5%
said
50.0%
The price was almost exactly right in every band (in the one above 70%, with only 29 games, the favorite won more). That's why beating the market is hard, and why the system only gives a signal when it sees an edge over the price.
ONE GAME
One game, as you'll see it in 2027
World Series Game 3 (October 26): MIL at TB, with that day's consensus prices, closed with the final score and the green mark on every market that came in.
MIL10@1TB
Final
| Close | | | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ML | +100 | -118 | ||||
| F5 | +0.5 | -115 | ▲1.0 | -0.5 | +115 | ▼1.0 |
| RL | +1.5 | -210 | -1.5 | +180 | ||
| TT | o3.5 | +115 | ▼1.0 | o3.5 | +108 | ▼0.5 |
| O/U 7 | O | -117 | ▲1.0 | U | -102 | ▼1.0 |
Trends▾
| TM | L10 | STRK | O8.5 | RS | RA | HOME | AWAY | NRFI | F5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | W5 | 5/10 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 55-26 | 48-33 | 52% | 49% |
| 5-5 | L1 | 4/10 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 55-26 | 43-38 | 52% | 43% |
Series: MIL 2-1, averaging 7.7 runs · Against the starter's hand: MIL 32-25 vs righties · TB 31-17 vs lefties
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Glossary — what each stat means▾
How to read each game
The order — the away team on the left and the home team on the right, in every row.
The bar — the probability the market consensus gives each team, with the commission already deducted, and its fair line. A price that pays more than the fair line pays above the market.
ML · F5 · RL · TT · O/U — the winner; who is ahead after the fifth inning: the favorite at −0.5 (must be ahead) and the other side at +0.5 (a tie counts for it); the run margin, −1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the other; each team's runs, at the market's most even line; and the game total. The consensus doesn't include F5 or TT: those two rows show the price available in the market.
The movement ▲▼ — next to each price, how many probability points that side has gained or lost since the open. If the total line changed, it says so below (“opened 8.5”) and the price isn't compared.
Best consensus price — the best price available before the game, among those that form the consensus.
After the game — the closing price and a green mark on the side that came in, in each market.
Following the movement
A movement — when the consensus in a market moves 1.5 points or more since the open. It tells you which way the market moved, not who is going to win. Only the largest one per game counts.
Does following it work? — how often the side the line moved toward came in, against what its price required. With 150 moves it turns green if it's 3 points or more above, red if it falls 3 short; in between, no clear edge. The system measures it each morning.
The dot — green, it came in; red, it didn't; gray, it landed on the line; hollow, still being played.
The trends
L10 · STRK · O8.5 — the record in the last 10, the current streak, and how many of those 10 went over 8.5 runs.
RS · RA — runs scored and allowed per game in their last 10.
HOME · AWAY — the season record at home and away.
NRFI · F5 — how often the first inning ends with no runs, and how many games went over 4.5 runs in the first five.
Where it all comes from
The statistics and the scores — official, from MLB.
The prices — the market consensus: taken at 8:00 and updated before each block of games.
Nothing estimated — if a number isn't available, it shows a dash.